Why These Five Horses Are My Strongest Bets for Tuesday, 2 December – Value & Form Breakdown

I’ve got five horses singled out for today’s action across Clonmel, Southwell, Newcastle, and Lingfield. All are backed “Win and Each-Way” at decent prices (from 9/4 up to 3/1+), and here’s exactly why I believe each of them has the best chance in their respective races.

1. Staffordshire Knot – 13:05 Clonmel (2.50)

Willie Mullins-trained 5-y-o who was a very

easy winner of a Punchestown maiden hurdle on debut last season. He ran a huge race on his comeback at Naas behind the smart Ballyburn, finishing a clear second while pulling miles clear of the remainder. That form has already been franked multiple times. Dropped in grade here and gets a handy 5-lb claimer on board. Looks the class angle in a modest race.

2. Livvy’s Lad – 13:22 Southwell (2.25)

Tony Carroll’s gelding is in the form of his life right now – won his last two over C&D in November and went up a combined 11 lb. He’s still looks well handicapped on old form (was rated in the 70s on turf). Loves this surface (4-10 at Southwell), draws stall 3, and gets a positive 5-lb claimer again. Hard to see anything laying a glove on him if he gets into a rhythm early.

3. Duel Au Soleil – 14:52 Southwell (2.50)

Another Southwell specialist. This 5-y-o has won three of his last five starts here and was an excellent second off this mark two weeks ago when just collared late by a well-treated rival. Same mark today, same track-and-trip he loves (5 wins from 14 runs at the course), and he’s drawn perfectly in stall 4. Looks nailed-on for the frame at worst and a big chance to go one better.

4. Roman Spring – 15:30 Lingfield (3.50)

Rae Guest’s filly has improved with every run this winter. Runner-up over C&D two starts back off 68, then bolted up at Chelmsford last time off 70, winning with plenty in hand. Only up 4 lb for that and Oisin Murphy keeps the ride. Lingfield polytrack clearly suits (form figures 221 here) and the step up to 1m2f looks ideal on breeding. Still unexposed and looks the one they all have to beat.

5. Aisling Oscar – 17:45 Newcastle (2.25)

Craig Lidster’s 3-y-o has been knocking hard on the door over this trip – second on his last three starts, all off marks in the 58-62 range. Runs off the same 62 tonight, drops into a Class 6 for the first time in ages, and gets a useful 7-lb claimer taking over. Tapeta form reads 22221 and he’s drawn low, which is a big plus around here. Looks a matter of time before he gets his head in front again.

Aisling Oscar at 19:45 Newcastle is my NAP of the day – three seconds in a row, now drops into a weaker race with 7 lb off his back. He wins tonight.